As risk sentiment looks mixed today, the path of least resistance for the euro is to the downside
The euro failed to challenge the 1.1900 barrier on Wednesday to notch local lows around 1.1830 as the greenback regained upside momentum across the board. Today, EURUSD bounced back into positive territory but still lacks the upside momentum to regain more ground. If dollar demand persists in the short term, the common currency could derail the 1.1800 support zone if the 20-DMA, today at 1.1825, gives up. In the immediate term, EURUSD needs to regain the 1.1850 area in order to stay afloat and avoid deeper losses. As risk sentiment looks mixed today, the path of least resistance for the euro is to the downside despite the recent recovery from the mentioned local lows.
The cable continues to oscillate around the 100-DMA, today at 1.3920. The pair reversed yesterday’s losses but struggles to make a decisive break above the immediate moving average as the greenback looks steady despite demand has eased since Wednesday. The pound was last seen changing hands just above the 1.3900 figure, up 0.19% for the day. On the downside, the immediate support arrives around 1.3870, followed by a slightly ascending 20-DMA that lies at 1.3830. as long as the pair stays above this moving average, downside risks are limited. On the four-hour charts, GBPUSD is flirting with the 20-SMA while the RSI is pointing marginally higher, suggesting the immediate technical picture looks neutral for the time being.
USDJPY has been climbing for the second day in a row on Thursday. The pair exceeded the 100-DMA to notch intraday highs around 109.75 before retreating partially during the European hours. If this intermediate resistance gives up any time soon, the prices would target the 20-DMA, today at 109.87 while the key upside target is represented by the 110.00 figure last seen more than one week ago. In the short term, it looks like the greenback could struggle to regain this barrier, with downside risks persisting despite the recent bounce from local lows around 108.70. On the positive side, however, the daily RSI is pointing north in the neutral territory, suggesting the pair could at least stay afloat in the short term.
Gold prices remain confined to a tight range, being stuck between the key moving averages these days. the bullion briefly rallied above the $1,830 figure to finish just marginally higher on Wednesday following two days of modest losses. Today, the yellow metal is back under some selling pressure, flirting with the 20-DMA. The bullion now needs to make a decisive break above the mentioned simple moving average in order to get out of the consolidative range. Then, last month’s highs in the $1,834 area will come into market focus. Gold prices could challenge this region in the coming days if the selling pressure surrounding the dollar reemerges. Otherwise, the prices would get back under the $1,800 figure.
USDCAD turned slightly negative on Thursday following four consecutive days of gains. Despite the recent ascent, the pair failed to make a decisive break above the ascending 20-DMA, today at 1.2544. The dollar was last seen flirting with this moving average while attempting to stay afloat and avoid deeper losses. On the upside, the key barrier is still represented by the 200-DMA that arrives at 1.2585. Once above this SMA, the pair could regain the 1.2600 barrier. In this scenario, the near-term technical picture would improve. However, as the 20-DMA continues to act as resistance, the upside potential looks limited for the time being. On the weekly timeframes, USDCAD looks relatively resilient, recovering after two weeks of losses.