The path of least resistance for XAUUSD is to the downside
EURUSD has been losing ground for the fourth day in a row already. The pair attempted to erase intraday losses in recent trading but was rejected just below the 1.1720 area and got back under the 1.17 handle. As long as this level acts as resistance, the risk of a more aggressive retreat remains high. Now, as the common currency is threatening fresh late-July lows, the 1.1670 region is in market focus as a break below it will pave the way toward 1.1640. On the upside, the euro needs to stage a decisive recovery above 1.17 to shrug off the current downside pressure. Meanwhile, the key barrier for bulls is represented by the 20-DMA that arrives at 1.1825.
GBPUSD turned marginally higher on the day after a dip to fresh two-month lows earlier in the day. Despite the recent bounce, the bullish bias looks too modest to bet on a more robust and sustainable recovery, with downside risks persisting for the time being. The pair extended losses to 1.2675 and has settled around the 100- and 200-DMAs since then. A daily close relative to these moving averages would be important for the cable, as a firmer recovery above them would pave the way to 1.28. in a wider picture, the pound needs to get back above the 20-DMA around 1.3040 that has been acting as resistance for nearly two weeks already
USDJPY continues to climb from six-month lows registered around 104.00 on Monday. The pair has exceeded the 105.00 handle in recent trading, challenging one-week highs around 105.20. If the buying pressure surrounding the greenback persists, and risk sentiment remains positive in the short-term, the pair could retarget the 20-DMA once the mentioned highs turn into support. On the four-hour timeframes, USDJPY looks neutral as long as the prices stay between the 20- and 100-SMAs. Meanwhile, the daily RSI is pointing north, suggesting the pair will preserve its bullish momentum for the time being.
Gold prices keep edging lower since Monday, dipping to $1,873 earlier during the European hours. The precious metal managed to trim losses marginally since then but the pressure remains too strong to expect a reversal in the short term. If the prices fail to hold above the $1,862 handle where the August 12 low lies, the bullion will target the 100-DMA around $1,842. On the upside, the immediate resistance now arrives at $1,900, followed by $1,937 where the 20-DMA arrives. As long as gold remains below this moving average, the path of least resistance is to the downside. In a wider picture, the prices are nearing the 20-SMA in the weekly timeframes. A break below this level that comes around $1,850 could trigger a more aggressive retreat from all-time highs registered in early-August.
The Kiwi keeps bleeding since the start of the week, correcting lower from early-April highs registered around 0.68 on Monday. The pair extended losses to nearly one-month lows in the 0.6580 area in recent trading and remains in the lower end of the extended range. In the short term, the prices need to recover above 0.66 to trim intraday losses. However, it looks like the New Zealand dollar will extend the current decline to fresh local lows before a reversal takes place. The daily RSI is pointing south but hasn’t entered the oversold territory just yet, suggesting the selling pressure could persist in the short term. Once below the mentioned lows, the pair will target the 0.6520 intermediate support, followed by the 0.65 figure last seen on August 20.