Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 661,000 in September versus market expectation of 850,000
EURUSD
EURUSD slightly weakened in recent trading, staying close to the 1.17 handle after fresh economic data out of the US showed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 661,000 in September following August’s increase of 1,489,000 (revised from 1,3171,000) and versus market expectation of 850,000. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.9% from 8.4% in August and came in better than the estimate of 8.2% while the Average Hourly Earnings rose by 4.7% on a yearly basis, compared to the market expectation of 4.8%.
The pair saw only a modest reaction to release, staying on the defensive on Friday as the dominating risk aversion continues to underpin demand for the safe-haven dollar. In a wider picture, the euro is being capped by the 20-DMA that acts as the key immediate resistance now. On the downside, a daily close below 1.17 could bring the 1.16 handle back into market focus. The nearest support now arrives at 1.1680. The daily RSI is edging slightly lower in the neutral territory, suggesting the downside pressure could persist in the near term.
GBPUSD turned slightly higher on the day during the European hours and managed to preserve modest gains following the report from the US. The pair continues to hold above the 100-DMA around 1.2765. Now, the 20-DMA remains in market focus as daily close relative to this level will define further short-term dynamics in the pair. On the upside, the key hurdle arrives at 1.30. As long as the prices stay below this level, bearish risks persist. On the four-hour charts, the pound is threatening the 20- and 100-SMAs again, holding barely above the former. The RSI in the same timeframe is pointing south, which implies that the intraday bullish bias is unsustainable.
USDJPY
USDJPY briefly dipped below 105.00 during the Asian hours but managed to trim losses afterward. As of writing, the dollar was changing hands around 105.30, off the intraday highs of 105.66. Now, as the greenback is back below the key 20-daily moving average, downside risks increase again after the recent upside correction from long-term lows in the 104.00 area. However, the technical picture on the hourly charts has improved recently as the prices are retargeting the 200-SMA and the RSI is pointing north in the neutral territory. The immediate hurdle for dollar bulls now arrives at 105.50. Once above this level and the mentioned moving average, USDJPY could retarget this week’s highs around 105.80.
USDCHF has been flirting with the 20-DMA for the last three days, holding above this key short-term support that arrives around 0.9160. As of writing, the pair was changing hands marginally above the 0.92 handle as the dollar regained its upside bias on Friday after a retreat witnessed yesterday. A daily and weekly close above 0.92 could shift market focus back to the 0.93 barrier that capped the local rally one week ago. Otherwise, USDCHF may resume the decline and challenge the mentioned moving average for the first time since September 21st. The daily RSI is pointing only slightly upwards, suggesting the current bullish momentum is unsustainable. On the weekly charts, the dollar has retreated from the 20-SMA after a strong rally witnessed last week. as a result, the weekly RSI reversed south, adding to bearish signs in the longer term.
