EURUSD struggles to get back above the 1.17 handle despite a bounce from lows
On the data front, personal income in the US rose by 0.9% on a monthly basis in September following August’s contraction of 2.5% and versus +0.4% expected. Personal spending in the same period increased by 1.4% and surpassed analysts’ estimate of 1%. The greenback showed no immediate reaction to the data but retreated marginally afterward. Earlier in the day, EU agency Eurostat reported that the Eurozone economy soared by 12.7% in the third quarter, its sharpest recorded increase while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 8.3% in September.
EURUSD stayed marginally above the key 100-DMA following the release out of the US, still struggling to get back above the 1.17 handle despite a bounce from lows around 1.1650. As long as the pair stays below this level, downside risks continue to persist, threatening the current fragile recovery in the common currency. The daily RSI is pointing only slightly upwards and lacks momentum, suggesting the recovery potential will be limited in the short term. On the downside, a break below the mentioned lows could pave the way toward the 1.1610 region that capped the selling pressure in late-September.
GBPUSD is stuck between the 20- and 100-DMAs on Friday, regaining the bullish bias after two days of declines. The pair stays below the 1.30 after yesterday’s rejection from local highs in an extended correction from the 1.3175 area seen last week. On the downside, the 100-DMA acts as the immediate support around 1.2870. As long as the prices stay above this level, downside risks are limited while upside potential persists. In a wider picture, the cable needs to make a decisive break above the 1.31 barrier in order to retarget 1.33. In the four-hour timeframes, bullish attempts are being capped by the 20-SMA while the RSI looks directionless in the neutral territory, suggesting some consolidation should be expected in the short term before the pair decides on the further direction.
USDJPY bounced from the 104.00 figure that acted as support once again during the recent sell-off. As a result, the dollar climbed back to the 104.60 area, a break above which could pave the way toward 105.00. followed by the 20-DMA. In a wider picture, the greenback extends its gradual retreat and staying below the descending 20-DMA that turned into resistance earlier this month. On the positive side, long upper wicks in the daily timeframes suggest that downside risks for the greenback are limited at this stage. On the other hand, as long as the prices stay below the mentioned moving average, the bullish potential stays weak.
USDCHF has been rising for the fifth day in a row on Friday, extending the correction from the 0.9030 area. The pair climbed to the 0.9170 region that capped further bullish attempts, acting as the immediate resistance. The daily RSI turned flat in the neutral territory, suggesting the dollar will likely struggle to extend the local rally and could shift into a corrective mode after some consolidation in the short term. on the four-hour charts, USDCHF looks positive as long as the prices stay above the key moving averages. On the other hand, the RSI has corrected lower from the overbought territory, suggesting the prices could begin a bearish correction soon. If so, the initial support is expected at 0.9140, followed by 0.91.