The euro still lacks the momentum to make a decisive break above the 1.2000 psychological barrier
EURUSD was rejected from the 1.2000 handle on Monday but managed to regain upside bias today, trading 0.33% higher on the day. The euro still lacks the momentum to make a decisive break above the psychological barrier, and it looks like the pair may need the additional catalyst in order to overcome this hurdle in the short term. Earlier during the European hours, the pair faced a local barrier at 1.1985 and has retreated partially since then. In a wider picture, however, the euro retains its bullish tone as long as the prices stay above the 100-DMA that has settled around 1.1780 on Tuesday. On the upside, a break above 1.2000 would pave the way towards fresh 2020 tops above 1.2010.
GBPUSD has derailed the 1.3400 figure for the first time in three months on Tuesday. The cable encountered resistance in this area and retreated to nearly flat levels in recent trading while holding above 1.3300. Despite the correction, the pair could make another bullish attempt after a pause as the overall trend remains bullish, suggesting the 1.3400 barrier could turn into support if the selling pressure surrounding the greenback persists in the short term. On the positive side, the prices stay above the 20-DMA while the daily RSI hasn’t entered the overbought conditions just yet, suggesting further gains could lie ahead for the sterling. On the downside, the immediate support now arrives at 1.3290.
USDJPY extends the recovery from one-week lows registered on Monday. The dollar has regained the 104.00 figure in recent trading and was flirting with the 20-DMA as of writing. Once above this moving average (today at 104.40), the pair could eye the 104.50 resistance that will likely trigger a pullback as the recovery momentum looks unstained, with downside risks persisting despite the current rebound. On the other hand, the flat and neutral daily RSI implies that the bearish risks look limited as well. In other words, USDJPY could spend some time in a consolidative pattern before deciding on a further direction. If the selling pressure reemerges, a decline below 104.00 should be expected in the short term.
Gold prices bounced strongly from fresh multi-month lows registered yesterday in the $1,764 area. In the course of the recent correction, the bullion has exceeded the $1,800 handle where the 200-DMA lies and came across the local resistance around $1,810 in recent trading. The bounce was due to oversold conditions while a broader trend remains bearish, with downside risks persisting as long as the precious metal remains below the 100-DMA, today at $1,910. In the short-term, XAUUSD could challenge the mentioned intraday highs but will likely face a hurdle around $1,820. On the four-hour timeframes, the technical picture has improved somewhat following the recent break above the descending 20-SMA.
USDCHF managed to bounce from three-week lows seen around 0.9020 yesterday. However, the recovery was capped marginally below the 0.9100 figure where the descending 20-DMA arrives. This moving average has been capping the upside potential since mid-November, and it looks like the pair will stay on the defensive as long as the dollar keeps trading below the mentioned MA. On the downside, the immediate support now arrives at 0.9050, followed by 0.9035 and 0.9000. On the four-hour charts, the greenback has slipped back below the 20-DMA, which implies that the selling pressure could intensify in the short term. In a wider picture, the pair’s upside potential has been capped by the descending 100-DMA since late-May.