In the short term, the euro needs to hold above the 1.2200 figure in order to avoid a deeper correction
EURUSD briefly dipped to the 1.2130 area on Monday but managed to trim losses since then. Today, risk sentiment has improved in Europe but the common currency remains under some selling pressure as the safe-haven dollar demand prevails. On the other hand, despite the bullish bias, the current recovery in the greenback looks vulnerable and unsustainable. In the short term, the euro needs to hold above the 1.2200 figure in order to avoid a deeper correction. Meanwhile, in a wider picture, the pair has been deriving support from the ascending 20-DMA since early-November. As long as the prices stay above this moving average, upside risks persist.
GBPUSD turned marginally higher on Tuesday after failed attempts to challenge the 1.3500 handles yesterday. The pair was changing hands around 1.3435 at the time of writing, down 0.18% on the day. On the downside, the cable needs to hold above the 20-DMA that arrives just below the 1.3400 figure. As long as this level represents support, bearish risks look limited in the short term. If the mentioned moving average gives up, the 100-DMA around 1.3120 will come into market focus. The daily RSI continues to correct lower in the neutral territory, suggesting there is further room to the downside at least in the immediate term.
USDJPY bounced from the 103.25 area and turned positive on the day on Tuesday. The pair climbed to the 103.50 area that represents the immediate obstacle for dollar bulls at this stage. The prices have retreated marginally since then, suggesting the recovery potential is limited while downside risks still persist. Furthermore, the upside momentum has been capped by the descending 20-DMA for over a month already. As long as the greenback stays below this significant moving average, bearish risks persist. In the immediate term, the pair needs to make a decisive break above 103.50. Otherwise, the 103.00 figure will come back into market focus.
USDCHF has been trending marginally higher these days, nearing the 0.8900 level during the European hours. Despite the upside bias, the dollar still lacks the recovery momentum while staying close to early-2015 lows seen around 0.8820 last week. On the four-hour charts, the pair has settled above the 20-SMA, which is a positive technical signal in the short term, suggesting the greenback could at least retain a bullish bias in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support arrives at 0.8850. In a wider picture, the prices need to overcome the descending 20-DMA (today at 0.8920) in order to see a more robust recovery from long-term lows.
USDCAD has been rising for the third day in a row, having climbed to nearly three-week highs around 1.2956 on Monday. However, the pair failed to preserve gains and retreated following a short-lived rally. The dollar has settled around the descending 20-DMA since then while retaining a bullish bias on Tuesday, deriving support from the mentioned moving average, today at 1.2840. The immediate resistance for the pair now arrives at 1.2900. A decisive break above this level would confirm the improving short-term technical picture while recovery above 1.2960 could pave the way to the 1.3000 psychological handles last seen in early-December.