If the euro fails to overcome the 1.2220 resistance, the pair will finish the week in the red
EURUSD failed to challenge the 1.2220 local resistance earlier in the day and retreated below 1.2200 as a result. Despite the rejection, the common currency retains a mild bullish bias in the intraday timeframes as the greenback stays on the defensive nearly across the board. If the euro fails to overcome the mentioned resistance, the pair will finish the week in the red. Considering the daily RSI is neutral, it looks like the pair may stay around 1.2200 in the short term. On the upside, a break above 1.2220 would pave the way toward 1.2250, followed by long-term highs around 1.2280 seen last week.
GBPUSD extends the rally for the second day in a row on Thursday, as traders continue to bet on Brexit deal that could push the cable to the 1.40 handle. So far, the pair awaits the final decision at the 1.3600 handle during the European hours. The daily RSI is pointing north while staying in the neutral territory, suggesting there is still room on the upside. Furthermore, the prices are holding firmly above the 20-DMA after the recent hesitation. In case of disappointment and failure to strike a trade deal, the pound could plunge aggressively as the current expectations are upbeat. In this case, GBPUSD would retreat below the 100-DMA, today at 1.3130 and could even threaten the 1.3000 figure.
USDJPY extends its gradual and uneven recovery from March lows registered last week below 103.00. On Thursday, the pair climbed to the 107.30 resistance that stands on the way toward the descending 20-DMA, today at 103.85. If the dollar manages to overcome these two barriers and climb to 104.00, downside risks would ease in the short term. Otherwise, the pair will likely resume the decline and could get back below the 103.50 area. So far, despite a mild bullish bias in the daily RSI, it looks like the path of least resistance is to the downside even as the pair sees a bullish bias above 103.50 during the European hours.
USDCHF remains capped by the 0.8900 handle where the descending 20-DMA arrives today. The pair was rejected from this level yesterday and the 0.8850 intermediate support remaining in market focus as the greenback struggles to see a more robust upside momentum following the recent plunge to early-2015 lows in the 0.8820 region. The daily RSI looks directionless in the neutral territory, suggesting the pair will likely continue to cling to the 0.8880 region before deciding on a further direction. On the hourly charts, the prices are barely holding above the 20-SMA, a break below which would mark deterioration in the short-term technical picture.
USDCAD continues to threaten the descending 20-DMA on Thursday after a strong rejection from local highs in the 1.2955 area at the start of the week. The pair struggles to regain a sustained upside momentum since then but refrains from a more aggressive downside correction as well. As of writing, USDCAD was changing hands around 1.2830, down 0.11% on the day. The mentioned moving average is in market focus now as a break below it could trigger a steeper decline. In this scenario, the initial bearish target should be expected at 1.2800, followed by 1.2780. On the four-hour charts, the pair is now stuck between the 20- and 100-SMAs while the RSI is unbiased in the neutral territory, suggesting the dollar could spend some time in consolidation before deciding on a further direction.