The common currency faces local resistance near 1.1970 during the European hours
EURUSD has been rising for the third day in a row on Thursday, looking more confident after a recovery above the 1.1900 figure. The pair faced local resistance near 1.1970 during the European hours, struggling to challenge the 1.2000 psychological level ahead of the ECB meeting that would set the further tone for the common currency. Despite the bounce seen these days, downside risks continue to persist as long as the euro stays below the key moving averages (the 100-DMA at 1.2035 and the 20-DMA at 1.2050). If the selling pressure reemerges any time soon, the immediate support now expected at 1.1925, followed by the 1.1900 figure. On the hourly charts, the pair is close to flirting with the 100-SMA that could trigger a correction as the euro may lack upside momentum to extend the ascent at this stage.
The cable continues to probe the 20-DMA that arrives at 1.3950, representing the key barrier on the way towards 1.4000. The pair retains a bullish bias for the fourth day in a row despite the recent strength in the greenback, suggesting the sterling remains resilient and could retarget long-term highs above 1.4200 last seen in late-February. However, a daily close above the mentioned moving average is essential for a bullish continuation. Otherwise, a correction below 1.3900 could be expected. On the downside, the 1.3800 figure remains in market focus.
USDJPY is making recovery attempts following a two-day slide from fresh mid-2020 highs seen above 109.00 earlier this week. Despite the recent retreat, the daily RSI remains in the overbought territory, suggesting the bullish potential will likely be limited at this stage. It is possible that the dollar would see a deeper downside correction before buying interest reemerges. In this scenario, USDJPY may challenge this week’s lows around 108.25, to derail the 108.00 figure for the first time since last Friday. On the upside, a decisive recovery above 109.00 would pave the way to fresh nine-month highs. On the hourly charts, the prices struggle to settle above the key simple moving averages, which implies that short-term upside potential is limited for the time being.
The Kiwi climbed to the 20-DMA for the first time in a week. The pair has been recovering for the third session in a row, setting fresh local highs around 0.7240. If this moving average gives up in the short term, the 0.7270 intermediate resistance will come back into market focus. However, it looks like the New Zealand dollar would be rejected from here as the hourly RSI has reversed south from the overbought territory in recent trading. In a wider picture, the technical outlook remains upbeat as long as the pair stays above the 200-weekly moving average that has been acting as support since May 2020.
The cross continues to oscillate around more than one-year lows despite a bullish bias seen on Thursday. The euro bounced slightly from the 0.8550 area but still struggles to regain the 0.8600 figure that represents the immediate upside hurdle. As such, the near-term technical outlook for EURGBP remains downbeat, with risks skewed to the downside. On the four-hour charts, however, the prices have climbed above the 20-SMA in recent trading and were last seen flirting with the 100-hourly SMA. Confirmation of a local breakout could pave the way to more robust gains in the immediate term. However, the common currency could attract selling interest on a break above 0.8600.