Downside risks surrounding the European currency continue to persist at least as long as the prices stay below the 20-week moving average
As dollar demand continues to wane, in recent trading EURUSD surged to two-week highs around 1.1890 where the key 100-DMA lies. it looks like the common currency may need an extra impetus to overcome this immediate barrier in order to regain the 1.1900 figure eventually. On the downside, the immediate support is now expected at 1.1850 where the 20-DMA lies. Another daily close above this moving average would be a confirmation of the latest breakout. However, in a wider picture, downside risks surrounding the European currency continue to persist at least as long as the prices stay below the 20-week moving average, today at 1.2050.
GBPUSD slipped to one-week lows around 1.3770 early on Wednesday before reversing. The cable bounced marginally, to turn marginally positive on the day. Now, the 20-DMA represents the immediate hurdle for sterling bulls while capping the way towards the 1.3900 figure. In the short term, the pound will likely stay below this level as the British currency still lacks bullish momentum despite the current weakness in dollar demand. Furthermore, downside risks continue to persist, and a break below 1.3800 still possible. On the four-hour charts, the pair is now stuck in a tight range between the 20- and 100-DMAs while the RSI looks directionless in the neutral territory, suggesting the cable could spend some time in consolidation before deciding on the further direction.
USDJPY refreshed April lows around 109.55 earlier in the day before reversing higher. The pair derived support just above the ascending 20-DMA that caps the downside pressure since early-2021. Despite the bounce, the dollar failed to regain the 110.00 figure that now represents the key upside target. If the prices fail to get back above this hurdle in the short term, another local sell-off could be expected as the pair still stays elevated, just marginally off one-year highs seen around 111.00 last week. On the downside, the mentioned 20-day moving average (today at 109.44) remains in market focus. A decisive recovery above 110.00 would pave the way towards the 110.30 intermediate barrier.
XAUUSD rose to the $1,745 area on Tuesday before erasing some gains today. The precious metal has retreated below $1,740 while staying marginally above the 20-DMA that represents the immediate support. If this moving average (today at $1,728) gives up, the $1,700 figure will come back into market focus. In the short-term, the bullion will likely refrain from deeper losses while in a wider picture, downside risks continue to persist amid a strong and steady dollar. On the four-hour charts, the XAUUSD pair is flirting with the 200-SMA while the RSI looks directionless, suggesting short-term dynamics could stay neutral for some time.
The Aussie climbed to two-week highs around 0.7676 earlier in the day but failed to preserve gains and erased gains. As a result, the pair slipped back under the ascending 100-DMA as the 20-DMA acted as resistance during the ascent. The Australian dollar was last seen trading at 0.7627, slightly off intraday lows and down 0.44% on the day. Of note, the pair has been struggling to overcome the mentioned 20-day moving average since the plunge witnessed in late February, suggesting the MA represents a strong resistance zone. Considering that the USD index remains within a broader uptrend, a decisive break above this barrier looks unlikely in the short term, with the path of least resistance still pointing to the downside despite the recent weakness in dollar demand.