The euro will likely continue to oscillate around 1.2200 before deciding on further direction
EURUSD
EURUSD continues to struggle below the 1.2200 figure that represents the key immediate hurdle since last week. The pair briefly dipped to the 20-DMA on Friday before bouncing back to the current levels, suggesting downside risks are limited at this stage. On the other hand, the common currency still lacks upside momentum to overcome the mentioned barrier. A decisive break above 1.2200 would pave the way towards the 1.2266 figure that capped gains last week. At this stage, the pair will likely continue to oscillate around this level before deciding on a further direction. On the hourly charts, the technical picture looks neutral, adding to the consolidative pattern in the short term.
GBPUSD
The cable failed to stay above the 1.4200 figure last week and has been trending marginally lower since then. Earlier on Monday, the pair was once again rejected from the 1.4200 figure to slip to the 1.4160 area that represents the immediate support at this stage. Despite the prevailing bearish bias, it looks like the downside potential is limited while the overall technical picture stays bullish. Furthermore, the pair continues to derive support from the ascending 20-DMA, today at 1.4116. As long as the pound stays above this moving average, the bullish potential persists amid a weaker dollar. In the immediate term, however, the pair could stay on the defensive in this holiday trading.
USDJPY
USDJPY briefly rallied to early-April highs around 110.20 ahead of the weekend. However, the pair failed to preserve gains amid profit-taking and retreated below the 110.00 figure as a result. On Monday, the dollar came under some pressure while barely holding above the 109.60 region. As such, the daily RSI has reversed lower in the neutral territory, suggesting the greenback could see more losses in the immediate term. On the other hand, as the prices stay well above the 20-DMA (today at 109.13), a wider technical picture looks relatively upbeat. The key immediate target for bulls now arrives at 110.00 while on the downside, the nearest support is expected at 109.60.
XAUUSD
Gold prices look steady around $1,900 on Monday, slightly off January highs seen around $1,912 last week. The precious metal keeps climbing higher, having posted the fourth consecutive week in a row on Friday. The bullion was last seen trading around the $1,904-05 region, nearly unchanged for the day. In the short term, gold could see a pullback or even a period of consolidation before advancing higher. The daily RSI now looks directionless in the overbought territory, suggesting further gains could be limited in the near term. On the downside, the key immediate support is represented by the $1,880 area, followed by the ascending 20-DMA that now arrives at $1,855. Meanwhile, a daily close above the $1,900 figure would be a confirmation of a steady sentiment surrounding the bullion and could pave the way to further gains.
USDCHF
USDCHF has settled around the 0.9000 figure on Monday, struggling to overcome the 20-DMA that capped gains on Friday. The pair peaked at 0.9030 ahead of the weekend before retreating marginally as the dollar still feels uncomfortable despite the persisting inflation concerns. The daily RSI looks directional now in neutral territory, suggesting the prices could stay directionless in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support is now expected at 0.8960, followed by the 0.8930 area. On the four-hour charts, the pair is stuck between the 100- and 20-SMAs, which implies that the dollar would need an extra catalyst to get out of the short-term trading range.
