As long as the euro keeps holding above the 20-DMA, downside risks are limited
As the greenback rallies across the board on Wednesday, the euro keeps retreating from local peaks seen yesterday around 1.2255. The pair dipped below the 1.2200 figure earlier in the day to notch fresh three-day lows around 1.2170 where the significant 20-DMA lies. As long as the prices keep holding above this moving average, downside risks are limited. If this region fails to withstand the selling pressure any time soon, the market focus would shift back to last week’s lows around 1.2130, followed by the 1.2100 figure. On the hourly timeframes, the RSI is pointing south in oversold territory while the prices have settled below the key moving averages, adding to the negative short-term technical picture.
GBPUSD briefly rallied to April 2018 highs around 1.4250 on Tuesday before reversing south. Today, the pair extended its downside correction to the ascending 20-DMA that arrives at 1.4125 amid a broad-based recovery in USD demand. If the pressure intensifies any time soon, the cable could threaten the 1.4100 handle. Despite the current retreat, the overall technical picture surrounding the pound remains upbeat, as the pair is still trading around long-term highs and could seem fresh gains following a short-term downside correction. Now, the immediate resistance comes at 1.4160, followed by the 1.4200 figure. On the hourly charts, however, the pair has slipped below the 20-DMA, struggling to get back above this nearest barrier.
USDJPY bounced from the 109.30 area to regain upside momentum on Wednesday. The pair advanced to the 109.90 zone, struggling to regain the 110.00 figure, suggesting the bullish potential remains limited. If this barrier withstands the pressure in the short term, the greenback could reverse back south eventually. In this scenario, the immediate support should be expected at 109.60, followed by the 109.45 area. In a wider picture, the outlook for the pair looks relatively steady as long as the prices stay above the 200-week moving average, today at 108.87. The key support is still represented by the directionless 20-DMA that lies at 109.17.
The Kiwi keeps retreating from last week’s highs seen above the 0.7300 handle. Today, the selling pressure has intensified, sending the pair back below the 20-DMA. As such, the New Zealand dollar extended losses to 0.7213, now threatening the 0.7200 last seen one week ago. It looks like the prices would manage to hold above this figure in the short term before bouncing back to the mentioned highs eventually. For the time being, however, the pair will likely stay on the defensive beyond the 20-DMA that arrives at 0.7227, representing the immediate resistance.
USDCHF reversed north following two days of losses to regain the 20-DMA, today at 0.9000. The pair climbed to the 0.9018 area so far on the session and looks poised for further gains in the short term. However, the dollar is yet to confirm the breakout on a daily closing basis as a wider picture surrounding the greenback remains bearish despite the current bounce. On the four-hour charts, the prices exceeded the key moving averages while the RSI is pointing north, suggesting USDCHF could at least preserve upside momentum for the time being. Now, the 1.9000 figure represents the immediate support while on the upside, the next target arrives at 0.9030.