The euro could stay on the defensive in the short term
EURUSD failed to extend Friday’s recovery, facing resistance represented by the 20-DMA, today around 1.2175. The pair was rejected from this area earlier in the day before turning marginally negative on the day as the selling pressure surrounding the greenback has eased on Monday. On the downside, the immediate support is represented by the 1.2145 region, followed by the 1.2100 figure. As long as the common currency stays above this level, downside risks are limited. On the four-hour charts, the prices have settled below the descending 20-SMA, suggesting the euro could stay on the defensive in the short term. If the pressure intensifies any time soon, a break below the 1.2130 intermediate support would pave the way towards the 1.2100 mentioned hurdle.
The cable bounced from the 1.4110 area earlier in the day extend gains to the 1.4170 zone. However, the pair failed to preserve gains and retreated towards the flat-line in recent trading, looking directionless for the time being. On the positive side, GBPUSD managed to recover above the 1.4100 level and was last seen flirting with the 20-DMA. A decisive recovery above this moving average would bring the 1.4200 barrier back into market focus. However, in the immediate term, the pair will likely struggle for direction, with the daily RSI staying neutral. In a wider picture, the technical outlook for the pound remains upbeat.
USDJPY attempted to stage a recovery early on Monday but lacked the momentum to overcome the 109.60 intermediate resistance. As a result, the pair turned marginally lower on the day to notch local lows around 109.34. On the positive side, however, the dollar has been holding above the 20-DMA since May 27, suggesting this moving average (today at 109.30) could trigger a bounce if the pressure doesn’t intensify in the short term. In this scenario, the prices would regain the mentioned 109.60 zone to retarget the 110.00 barrier eventually. On the downside, USDJPY could ease further if the 109.00 level gives up.
The bullion briefly plunged to May 19 lows around $1,855 before bouncing on Friday. Despite the subsequent recovery, the precious metal lacked the upside momentum to regain the $1,900 figure that continues to act as the immediate resistance on Monday. The prices were last seen around $1,885, marginally lower on the day but still above the ascending 20-DMA that arrives at $1,876 today. On the four-hour timeframes, the XAUUSD pair is stuck between the 20- and 100-SMAs, with short-term downside risks looking limited for the time being. In a wider picture, the outlook has deteriorated marginally in recent trading but stays upbeat in general.
The Kiwi bounced from one-month lows ahead of the weekend, extending the recovery on Monday as the dollar retreated across the board. The pair regained the 100-DMA and was last seen flirting with the 20-DMA that represents the immediate upside barrier at 0.7217. The prices need to set a daily close above the 0.7200 figure in order to confirm the latest breakout. Despite the bounce, the upside potential still looks limited while bearish risks persist for the time being. If dollar demand reemerges any time soon, NZDUSD could get back under the mentioned 100-DMA that arrives around 0.7180 before finding a bottom.