The outlook for the euro has been worsening since a break below a slightly descending 20-week SMA
Following a two-day recovery from early-April lows, the euro struggles on Monday as dollar demand reemerged amid the resurgent risk aversion in Europe. EURUSD faced resistance around 1.1880 earlier in the day before turning negative. The pair now needs to hold above 1.1850. Otherwise, the 1.1825 intermediate support will come back into market focus. As the euro was last seen challenging the 1.1850 area, the path of least resistance remains to the downside for the time being. In a wider picture, the outlook for the euro has been worsening since a break below a slightly descending 20-week SMA that arrives at 1.1983 today.
The cable briefly climbed to the 1.3910 area earlier in the day but failed to preserve upside momentum to turn negative for the day. Still, the pair so far preserve most of the gains seen ahead of the weekend when the prices rallied from the 1.3755 area. Earlier in Europe, the pound derived support from the 1.3840 zone to bounce marginally. However, the pair is now back under the descending 20-DMA that arrives at 1.3875, representing the immediate upside target at this stage. As long as GBPUSD stays below this moving average, upside risks are limited. On the hourly timeframes, the pair is now stuck between the key moving averages, with the shorter-term technical picture looking neutral.
USDJPY plunged to the 109.50 area last week to switch into a recovery mode on Friday. The dollar extends the rebound at the start of the week to face intermediate resistance around 110.30 earlier in the day. Now, as the greenback has settled above 110.00, the pair could retarget the 20-DMA around 110.55. However, the dollar may need an extra catalyst to climb to this zone in the short term. a daily close above 110.00 would be a confirmation of the latest breakout. In a wide picture, the prices continue to hold above the ascending 20-week SMA that arrives at 109.50 today.
Gold prices turned marginally lower on Monday but still holding around $1,800. The XAUUSD pair is now stuck between the key moving averages, with the immediate resistance arriving at $1,810. If dollar demand reemerges any time soon, the precious metal could get back under $1,800 to target the $1,790 area where the 20- and 100-DMAs converge. On the four-hour charts, the prices were rejected from the 20-SMA, suggesting the near-term technical picture could deteriorate further, especially as the RSI is pointing slightly lower in the same timeframes. In a wider picture, upside risks persist as long as the bullion stays above the 20-week DMA, today at $1,793.
The Kiwi was rejected from the descending 20-DMA at 0.7000 earlier in the day to erase Friday’s gains eventually. As such, the pair retreated back to the 0.6950 area, a break below which would pave the way to last week’s lows around 0.6930-0.6920. The New Zealand dollar struggles to regain the mentioned moving average since early-June, which implies that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Furthermore, the daily RSI has reversed south but is yet to enter the oversold territory, suggesting the selling pressure will likely persist in the short term. The pair was last seen changing hands just off intraday lows seen at 0.6947.