As long as the common currency trades below 1.1600, the mid-2020 lows remain in focus
The dollar continues to enjoy demand, staying elevated around 2021 highs ahead of the weekend. The USD index is navigating the 94.75 area where the September 2020 high arrives. EURUSD is slightly off earlier lows seen around 1.1530 but still stays below the 1.1600 figure, struggling to overcome the 1.1570 intermediate barrier. As long as the common currency trades below 1.1600, the mentioned mid-2020 lows remain in focus. Furthermore, the pair could threaten the 1.1500 figure should the greenback stage another rally following the upcoming US jobs report. On the four-hour charts, the technical picture has improved somewhat, with the prices flirting with the 20-SMA during the European hours. Meanwhile, the broader outlook remains bearish as the euro is finishing the fifth negative week in a row.
The cable is back above the 1.3600 figure but lacks the upside momentum to challenge the 20-DMA that has been acting as resistance since mid-December. The pair notched the intraday high of 1.3637, staying below this week’s tops in the 1.3750 area seen on Tuesday. Following the recent bounce from late-2020 lows seen last week around 1.3400, the technical picture has improved but bearish risks persist as long as the prices stay below the mentioned moving average, followed by the 1.3700 barrier. On the hourly timeframes, the pair struggled to overcome the 20-SMA despite the prevailing bullish bias, suggesting the cable could lack the momentum to stage a more robust ascent in the near term. Furthermore, should the dollar receive a boost from US jobs data, the pair may slip back below the 1.3550 region to register fresh weekly lows.
USDJPY extended the ascent to the 112.00 figure earlier in the day before retreating towards the 111.80 area in recent trading. The dollar remains on the offensive following a short-lived downside correction seen earlier in the week. However, the pair may need an extra impetus to challenge the mentioned barrier and register fresh late-2020 highs in the short term if the employment report doesn’t surprise on the upside. On the shorter-term timeframes, the technical picture looks mixed as USDJPY has settled above the key moving averages while RSI is pointing south at this stage. On the downside, the nearest support arrives at 111.60, followed by 111.35 and the 111.00 figure while the key barrier for the dollar bears lies in the 110.80 area.
Gold prices keep flirting with the descending 20-DMA this week, struggling to overcome this barrier. The bullion is off this week’s highs seen around $1,770 on Monday and was last seen changing hands in the $1,759 area, slightly up on the day. On the downside, the yellow metal needs to hold above the $1,745 region in order to stay afloat and refrain from deeper losses towards $1.720. A decisive break above the mentioned moving average would mark some improvement in the short-term technical picture and would open the way towards $1,770, followed by the $1,785 intermediate resistance on the way to the $1,800 psychological level.
The Kiwi extends a modest rebound on Friday following a sell-off seen earlier in the week. The pair edged higher to the 0.6950 area before retreating partially and was last seen changing hands around 0.6928, up less than 0.1% on the day. The key barrier still arrives at 0.6980 where this week’s highs lie. As long as the prices stay below this zone, downside risks continue to persist in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support is expected at 0.6900. Failure to hold above this level would bring the 0.6875 region back into the market focus. NZDUSD needs to make a decisive break above the descending 20-DMA (today at 0.6990) in order to shrug off the current weakness and see a more robust recovery next week.