GBPUSD keeps flirting with the 20-week SMA, lacking upside impetus to make a decisive break above this barrier
The euro climbed to intraday highs around 1.1665 earlier on Monday before turning negative in recent trading as the selling pressure surrounding the dollar has eased somehow. In the process, the EURUSD pair slipped to the 1.1620 area that represents the intermediate support on the way towards the 1.1600 figure. The common currency has been struggling to overcome the 1.1670 barrier since last week even as the dollar is mostly on the defensive these days. As long as the prices stay below the 1.1700 handle, upside risks are limited in the short term. In the coming days, the euro could suffer losses as traders will likely и cautious ahead of the ECB meeting due on Thursday. It looks like that the communication after the meeting will do more harm than good to the common currency.
The cable bounced from the 1.3740 region to turn positive on the day. However, the pair lacked bullish momentum to see more robust gains as the descending 100-DMA capped the recovery. The pair was last seen changing hands around 1.3766, up just 0.11% on the day. The key immediate resistance now arrives at 1.3800, followed by the 1.3850 region where the 200-DMA lies. On the downside, the pound needs to hold above the 1.3720 zone in order to refrain from another sell-off and shrug off the selling pressure eventually. In a wider picture, GBPUSD keeps flirting with the 20-week SMA, lacking upside impetus to make a decisive break above this moving average. At this stage, the technical outlook looks neutral, with the daily RSI directionless around the 56 figure.
USDJPY tried to stage a bounce following a three-day bearish correction from four-year highs seen around 114.70 last week. On Monday, the prices briefly dipped to mid-October lows in the 113.40 area before climbing to the 113.80 region during the European hours. Despite the latest bounce, it looks like the greenback may lack the recovery momentum to regain the 114.00 figure in the immediate term. On the four-hour charts, the technical picture looks mixed, as USDJPY has been staying below the descending 20-SMA since last Wednesday while the RSI is turning slightly higher in the neutral territory. The pair may see some consolidation in the near term before deciding on the further direction.
Gold prices have been climbing north for the fifth day in a row on Monday. The XAUUSD pair extended gains to the $1.800 region, struggling to overcome the psychological level during the European hours. Of note, the prices briefly surged to the $1,813 ahead of the weekend but failed to preserve gains and retreated, suggesting the yellow metal could attract another sell-off on a more robust rally in the coming days. On the downside, the immediate support now arrives at $1,790 where the 100- and 200-DMAs lie. A daily close above these moving averages would be a confirmation of the latest breakout and could pave the way to a more pronounced ascent eventually. The daily RSI is pointing north, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the upside.
USDCHF turned positive on Monday following seven days of losses. The pair derives support from the 0.9150 area last seen on September 10. As such, the prices bounced from the lows to regain the ascending 100-DMA in the process. The recovery, however, was capped by the 0.9200 region that triggered a slight correction in recent trading. It looks like USDCHF would need an extra catalyst to overcome this barrier in the short term. On the positive side, the pair managed to hold above the 200-DMA during the latest sell-off. This moving average (today at 0.91400 has been acting as support since early-August and should withstand the pressure should the dollar lose upside traction in the coming days. Otherwise, the greenback would suffer deeper losses before a reversal take place.
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