A daily close above 1.1300 won’t substantially change the short-term technical picture for the euro
The dollar came slightly off the yearly highs seen earlier in the week amid local profit-taking. On Wednesday, the EURUSD pair dipped to fresh mid-2020 lows around 1.1265 before trimming losses. Today, the euro extended recovery to the 1.1330 area, but downside risks continue to persist despite the oversold conditions. Earlier in the day, the common currency encountered resistance around 1.1340 and retreated marginally. A daily close above 1.1300 won’t substantially change the short-term technical picture that remains bearish as long as the prices stay below at least the 1.1450 intermediate resistance. Followed by the 1.1500 figure and the descending 20-DMA around 1.1525. On the hourly charts, the technical picture looks neutral, with the RSI directionless around the 53 figure while the prices are stuck between the 100- and 20-SMAs.
GBPUSD has been climbing north for the third day in a row on Thursday. The pair advanced to the 1.3500 figure for the first time in a week and looks set for further gains in the short term. In this scenario, the cable would target the descending 20-DMA (today at 1.3580) next. However, should dollar demand reemerge anytime soon, the pair will have to resume the decline towards 1.3425. On the hourly charts, bearish risks are limited as long as the prices stay above the ascending 20-SMA. In a wider picture, the pound looks set to finish the week in positive territory following three consecutive weeks of losses. To do this, GBPUSD needs to stay above the 1.3420 region by the closing bell on Friday.
USDJPY peaked just below the 115.00 figure on Wednesday before plunging abruptly on a daily basis. The pair came off March 2017 highs to finish at the 114.00 figure. Today, the dollar is attempting to stage a bounce from the 20-DMA, but lacks the recovery momentum, changing hands around 114.20 during the European hours. The pair has been holding above the 20-DMA for a week already, and as long as this moving average (today at 113.83) acts as support, upside risks persist despite the recent correction from the mentioned tops. On the four-hour timeframes, USDJPY is stuck between the 20- and 100-SMAs, struggling for direction, with the RSI looking neutral as well.
Following a negative start to the week, gold prices briefly surged to five-month highs around $1,877 but failed to hold onto gains and retreated to the $1,850 area. However, the buying pressure reemerged on Wednesday, with the bullish bias persisting today. The bullion was last seen changing hands around $1,866, nearly unchanged on the day. The technical outlook remains upbeat as long as the prices stay above the $1,850 intermediate support and the ascending 20-DMA, today at $1,820. On the upside, the next target for bulls arrives in the $1,900-$1,905 area last seen in early June. The daily RSI hasn’t entered overbought territory just yet, suggesting there is room for further gains at this stage. In the immediate term, gold prices may struggle for direction as investor sentiment looks mixed while the dollar has steadied after the recent rally.
USDCHF briefly climbed to early-October highs around 0.9330 on Wednesday and corrected lower below the 0.9300 figure eventually. Today, the pair extends the retreat, barely holding above the 0.9270 immediate support. A break below this zone would pave the way towards the 0.9250 area, followed by the 0.9220 zone. On the upside, a decisive recovery above the 0.9300 figure would shift the market focus towards the mentioned multi-week highs. In the immediate term, the dollar needs to hold above the ascending 4-hour SMA in order to avoid a deeper downside correction and regain the 0.9300 barrier eventually.