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Home » Easing geopolitical tensions push the greenback lower

Easing geopolitical tensions push the greenback lower

by Joseph Deen
February 16, 2022 11:30
in Technical analysis
0
Dollar lacks upside momentum due to lower Treasury yields

The common currency encountered resistance represented by the 100-DMA, currently at 1.1400

EURUSD

The greenback stays under pressure versus high-yielding and commodity currencies as Russia said it had pulled back some troops from the Ukrainian border. This step helped ease some worries about the conflict between the two countries and thus pushed the safe-haven dollar lower nearly across the market. As such, EURUSD advanced to the 1.1395 zone earlier on Wednesday before retreating marginally in recent trading. Of note, the common currency encountered resistance represented by the 100-DMA, currently at 1.1400, and it looks like the pair may need ab extra catalyst to turn this barrier back into support in the near term. On the hourly charts, EURUSD is losing upside momentum, targeting the 100- and 20-SMAs as the buying pressure surrounding risky assets seems to be waning already.  

GBPUSD

The cable retains a bullish bias after a bounce from the 100-DMA earlier in the week. The pair climbed to the 1.3575 area and was last seen clinging to the upper end of the range as the dollar stays on the defensive at this point. The pound needs to overcome this intermediate barrier in order to retain the 1.3600 target, but it looks like the pair will refrain from a more robust ascent in the near term and could stay within a familiar range instead. In a wider picture, the prices now need to hold above the 20-week SMA in order to stay afloat, as a break below this support zone, currently at 1.3500 could bring deeper losses ahead. The nearest support low lies at 1.3530, with the overall technical picture staying neutral as long as the prices keep treading water in the current range. 

USDJPY

USDJPY stays firmly above the 115.00 figure but refrains from challenging yesterday’s highs just below the 116.00 barrier. Should risk aversion reemerge, however, the pair will come back under pressure in the near term. Of note, the dollar has already retreated from intraday highs seen around 115.80 and was last seen changing hands around 115.65, just above the flat-line. Should the prices get below 115.60, the pair will turn negative on the day. Still, the downside potential looks limited as well, at least in the immediate term. On the four-hour timeframes, USDJPY is now flirting with the 20-SMA while the RSI looks directionless in the neutral territory, suggesting the pair could spend some time in consolidation mode before deciding on the further direction.

XAUUSD

Gold prices extended the ascent to mid-2021 highs around $1,880 on Tuesday before correcting lower as risk sentiment improved. The XAUUSD pair erased previous gains and slipped to the $1,855 zone. Should this level give any time soon, the downside pressure will intensify. Still, the bullion regained the upside momentum on Wednesday to settle just below the $1,860 zone during the European trading hours. A decisive break above this immediate barrier would pave the way towards the mentioned multi-month highs. As risk sentiment remains unstable, any sign of renewed geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine would push the safe-haven bullion back to the higher end of the extended trading range. In this scenario, XAUUSD could even target the $1,9000 figure in the coming weeks.

BTCUSD

The BTCUSD pair bounced from the $41,500 region that capped the downside pressure at the start of the week. On Tuesday, the most popular digital currency rallied above the $43,000 figure, extending gains to $44,500. The pair finished the day just below the $44,000 figure while retaining a bullish bias today. The coin climbed to nearly one-week highs in the $44,700 area earlier in the day before retreating back to the flat-line in recent trading. Despite the bullish momentum having slowed, the cryptocurrency remains buoyed at this point and could regain the $45,000 next barrier in the coming days. On the hourly charts, BTC was last seen flirting with the 20-SMA, signaling some deterioration in market sentiment.

Tags: BTCUSDEURUSDGBPUSDGoldUSDJPYXAUUSD
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Joseph Deen

Joseph Deen

Joseph is a technical analysis expert. A graduate of NYU, Joseph has a master's degree in mathematics. On FWNews, Joseph provides exchange rates reviews and forecasts.

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