It looks like the European currency would struggle to overcome the 1.1500 figure anytime soon
EURUSD bounced from the descending 100-DMA that has been in focus since the start of the week. The common currency is holding above the 1.1400 figure that represents the immediate support ahead of US inflation data. The euro advanced to daily highs around 1.1435 in recent trading while still staying below the 1.1450 zone as the greenback looks steady during the European hours. On the hourly charts, the pair is now back above the key moving averages while the RSI is pointing slightly higher in neutral territory, pointing to some improvement in the near-term technical picture. However, it looks like the European currency would struggle to overcome the 1.1500 figure anytime soon, with downside risks persisting as long as the prices stay below the 200-week SMA that arrives just below the mentioned barrier
The pound is trending marginally higher on Thursday while staying within a limited trading range these days. The pair extended gains to the 1.3557 figure, refraining from challenging this week’s highs seen at 1.3590 on Wednesday. Should the upside momentum pick up in the immediate term, the prices could revisit this hurdle, but a decisive break above 1.3600 on a daily closing basis looks unlikely at this stage. On the four-hour timeframes, however, the technical picture has improved after a recovery above the key moving averages, which implies that the cable could at least retain a bullish bias in the immediate term. In a wider picture, GBPUSD needs to confirm the recent recovery above the 20-week SMA in order to see more significant gains and get back to 2022 highs around 1.3750. On the downside, the immediate support arrives at 1.3525 where the 20-DMA lies.
USDJPY regained the upside momentum on Thursday, extending gains to one-month highs around 115.85. The pair is now targeting the 116.00 figure, with the daily RSI pointing north in the neutral territory, suggesting there is room for further gains at least in the immediate term. On the other hand, the dollar could be once again rejected from the mentioned highs and get back below the 115.40 zone if the greenback fails to derive support from the upcoming US inflation report. In this scenario, however, the pair will likely manage to hold above the 115.00 level that was derailed at the start of the week. In the longer term, USDJPY could hit fresh multi-year highs above 116.00 in the coming weeks/months, as the Bank of Japan stays hawkish while the Fed is about to start hiking rates in March.
Gold prices advanced to two-week highs around $1,836 before retreating back into the negative territory in recent trading. The XAUUSD pair slipped to $1,830, with downside potential looking limited at this point as long as the prices stay above a slightly ascending 20-DMA, currently at $1,819. For now, the technical picture looks neutral, and the bullion will likely continue to stay within a tight range as traders are cautiously awaiting the US CPI report that will set the tone for the USD denominated commodity through the dollar’s reaction to the data. In a bullish scenario, the precious metal could resume the ascent and refresh local highs in the $1,840 area, followed by the $1,853 level. On the hourly timeframes, however, the prices have got back below the 20-SMA as the upside impetus has waned somehow after four days of gains in a row.