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Home » Dollar on the defensive as rally fades

Dollar on the defensive as rally fades

by Joseph Deen
February 1, 2022 09:14
in Technical analysis
0
Dollar lacks upside momentum due to lower Treasury yields

In a wider picture, the pair remains within a broader downtrend, trading just slightly off long-term lows seen last week at 1.1120

EURUSD

The dollar stays pressured following yesterday’s bearish correction across the market. The USD index is back below the 97.00 figure, now threatening the 96.30 support zone, followed by the 96.00 level. As such, EURUSD exceeded the 1.1200 figure and extended the recent recovery to the 1.1270 zone before retreating marginally in recent trading. Despite the bounce, it looks like the common currency will struggle to get back above 1.1300 in the near term. On the four-hour charts, the upside momentum seems to be waning already, with euro bulls refraining from challenging the mentioned intraday highs. Should the pair resume the decline, the immediate support is now expected at 1.1230, followed by the 1.1200 figure. In a wider picture, the pair remains within a broader downtrend, trading just slightly off long-term lows seen last week at 1.1120.

GBPUSD

The cable has been trending north for the third session in a row on Tuesday. The pair was last seen approaching the 100-DMA, currently at 1.3514. The prices extended the bounce to the 1.3500 figure that could prevent the prices from further gains, especially as the simple moving averages could deter bulls above this immediate barrier. Should the pound lack the momentum to overcome 1.3500, GBPUSD could retreat back to the flat-line at 1.3440. On the hourly timeframes, the directionless RSI was last seen flirting with the 30 threshold, suggesting the bullish impetus could wane in the immediate term. Still, the cable is clinging to the higher end of the intraday range so far as the safe-haven dollar remains on the defensive.

USDJPY

USDJPY briefly peaked at 115.70 on Friday but failed to preserve gains and retreated by the end of the trading week. Today, the dollar stays under pressure, losing ground for the third consecutive session. The prices extended losses to the 114.60 zone during the European hours while also challenging the descending 20-DMA. Should the greenback finish the day below this moving average, currently at 114.73, the short-term technical picture will deteriorate further. For now, it looks like USDJPY would derive support from the 114.55 area that could trigger a bounce. In this scenario, the prices may get back above the 115.00 figure in the coming days. In the longer term, the pair remains within a broader uptrend while also holding above the ascending 20-week SMA.

XAUUSD

Gold prices saw a turnaround on Monday following three days of losses. The XAUUSD pair bounced from mid-December lows seen around $1,780 late last week to get back above the 100-DMA. Today, the precious metal extended recovery to $1,806 and was flirting with the 200-DMA during the European hours. Now that the bullion is back above the $1,800 psychological level, it looks like the prices could at least retain a bullish bias in the near term, with the next upside target arriving at $1,816 where the 20-DMA lies. So far, the greenback struggles around the mentioned lows, which implies that XAUUSD could hold above $1,800 in the immediate term. However, the metal is yet to confirm the recent bounce on a daily closing basis

USDCHF

USDCHF briefly rose to fresh late-November highs around 0.9340 on Monday but failed to preserve gains and reversed south, extending losses today amid a broader weakness surrounding the dollar. The pair slipped to the 0.9220 area, approaching the 100-DMA, currently at 0.9215. At this stage, the bearish potential looks limited as long as the prices stay above the 0.9200 figure, followed by the 20-DMA that arrives at 0.9190. Should this moving average give up, USDCHF can extend losses to the 0.9160 zone where the 200-DMA arrives. On the upside, the immediate barrier for dollar bulls now lies at 0.9240, followed by the 0.9275 region.

Tags: DollarEURUSDGBPUSDGoldUSDUSDJPYXAUUSD
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Joseph Deen

Joseph Deen

Joseph is a technical analysis expert. A graduate of NYU, Joseph has a master's degree in mathematics. On FWNews, Joseph provides exchange rates reviews and forecasts.

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