The longer-term outlook for XAUUSD looks upbeat, with the weekly RSI pointing north
The USD index bounced off two-month lows in the first half of the week to turn back negative on Wednesday. Today, the prices consolidate recent losses around 95.52, up 0.02% on the day during early morning in Europe. In the short term, the greenback remains bearish despite the recent corrective pullback from the intraday low while the broader bullish trend remains intact. Furthermore, the USD index could resume the ascent ahead of the Fed meeting due next week as traders expect the US central bank to signal a March rate hike. EURUSD climbed to the 1.1370 area earlier in the day but failed to preserve the upside impetus and trimmed intraday gains. The pair was last seen flirting with the 20-DMA, currently at 1.1347. Should the prices fail to hold above this zone, the 1.1315 intermediate support will come back into the market focus.
The pound bounced back above the 1.3600 figure from one-week lows registered around 1.3570 earlier in the week. The GBPUSD climbed to 1.3650 before retreating while finishing marginally higher on Wednesday and retaining a modest bullish bias today. In part, the bounce was due to a weaker dollar. The cable retains a modest bullish bias on Thursday but stays below the 1.3650 area that represents the immediate resistance at this point. The pair was last seen changing hands around 1.3620, up just 0.1% on the day. On the four-hour timeframes, the pound struggles to get back above the 20-SMA while the RSI looks directionless, suggesting the upside potential would be limited in the near term. Should the selling pressure reemerge anytime soon, GBPUSD may threaten the 1,3600 level, followed by this week’s lows around 1.3570.
USDJPY extended the recovery to 115.05 earlier in the week but failed to preserve gains and retreated back below the 20-DMA that continues to act as a local resistance. As of writing, USDJPY was changing hands around 114.30, down just 0.04% on the day. Despite the recent bullish bias, it looks like the pair would lack the upside momentum to settle above the mentioned moving average anytime soon. Furthermore, should risk aversion reemerge later today, the safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen could push USDJPY deeper into the negative territory. On the downside, the immediate support now arrives at 114.00. As long as the prices stay above the 113.50 area, the bearish risks are limited for the time being.
Gold prices rallied to two-month highs on Wednesday, extending gains to the $1,844 area today as the dollar turned negative amid the retreating Treasury yields. It looks like the XAUUSD pair could shift into consolidation mode in the immediate term, with upside risks persisting as long as the prices stay above the $1,830 zone. Should the bullion retreat below this level, the market focus will shift back to the ascending 20-DMA, currently at $1.814. On the upside, the resurgent upside pressure could push the prices to fresh multi-week highs around $1,850. However, it looks like the bullion will slip back towards $1,830 as the dollar looks steady at the current levels. At that, the longer-term outlook for XAUUSD looks upbeat, with the weekly RSI pointing north while the prices stay above the 20- and 100-week SMAs.
The BTCUSD finished below the $42,000 figure on Wednesday after a modest recovery witnessed earlier in the week. The coin failed to overcome the $42,600 zone and got back below $42,000 eventually. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization continues to oscillate in a tightening trading range, with bearish bias persisting, pushing the prices towards the $40,000 psychological level that was last derailed on January 10. The digital currency has been also staying below a slightly descending 20-DMA since late December. As long as this moving average acts as resistance, downside risks continue to persist in the short term. Should the $41,000 level fail to withstand the pressure, the market focus will shift towards $40,000. As of writing, the coin was flirting with the $42,000 figure, retaining a modest bullish bias on the intraday charts.