The euro lacks bullish momentum and near-term risks remain skewed to the downside
The dollar came under some pressure after another failed attempt to overcome the 99.00 barrier. However, the bearish potential looks limited at this stage as markets remain choppy while assessing the latest geopolitical developments and hawkish signals from the Fed. The USD index came off intraday lows around 98.40 to settle around 98.70 during the European hours, losing just 0.12% on the day. Against this backdrop, EURUSD was rejected from the 1.1040 region and retreated back to the 20-DMA that stays in the market focus as long as the common currency remains below last week’s highs seen around 1.1140. Now, as the euro lacks bullish momentum, near-term risks remain skewed to the downside, with the key support arriving at 1.0960. In a wider picture, the broader bearish trend remains intact. The pair stays well below the descending 20-week SMA that now lies around 1.1260.
The cable has been losing ground for the third session in a row on Friday. However, the pair refrains from challenging this week’s lows registered around 1.3120. GBPUSD was last seen changing hands around 1.3165, losing 0.14% on the day. As such, bearish risks look limited as long as the prices stay above the 1.3100 figure that could be derailed, however, if the safe-haven dollar demand picks up again. On the four-hour timeframes, the technical picture has deteriorated in recent trading as the cable failed to hold above the 20-SMA and was last seen challenging a slightly descending 100-SMA. adding to a downbeat outlook, the daily RSI is now pointing south, suggesting the least path of resistance remains to the downside for the time being. On the upside, a decisive bounce above the 1.3300 mark would mark some improvement in near-term technical picture.
USDJPY extended gains to the 122.40 zone for the first time since December 2015 earlier on Friday before retreating from fresh peaks in recent trading. The subsequent profit-taking pushed the dollar below 122.00 during the European hours. Still, the bearish correction looks fairly modest so far as compared to the latest gains that took the Japanese yen to more than six-year lows. USDJPY was last seen trading around 121.60, down 0.59% on the day. In the immediate term, the prices need to hold above the 121.00 figure in order to refrain from a deeper correction amid the overbought conditions. In a wider picture, the pair is finishing the third upbeat week in a row, with monthly gains looking spectacular as well. Furthermore, it looks like the dollar could regain the 122.00 figure following a short-lived retreat as dip buyers may reemerge in the 121.00-120.00 zone.
The bitcoin price looks set to finish the second bullish week in a row. The BTCUSD pair rallied strongly on Thursday as the buying pressure intensified after the coin exceeded the descending 100-DMA for the first time since December. Earlier on Friday, the most popular cryptocurrency extended gains to the $44,400 zone before retreating back to the flat-line in recent trading. The digital currency is approaching the $45,000 significant hurdle on the way towards the $50,000 barrier last seen in late 2021. However, it looks like the coin will struggle to get back above this psychological level as uncertainty remains elevated globally, including traditional financial markets. Possible rejection from the $45,000 zone could bring the prices back below the mentioned moving average, today at $42,000, followed by a slightly ascending 20-DMA that represents the intermediate support on the way towards the $40,000 mark.