It looks like the euro will lack the upside momentum to make a decisive break above 1.0500 on a daily closing basis
The greenback failed to hold above 104.00 as profit-taking continues amid further improvement in risk sentiment across the globe. The prices fell to the 103.65 zone during the European hours on Tuesday. The USD index could threaten the 103.00 mark in the short term if the 103.20 zone gives up. On the upside, recovery above 104.50 would pave the way towards fresh multi-year tops beyond 105.00. The euro has been recovering for the third session in a row on Tuesday as the safe-haven dollar keeps retreating from fresh twenty-year peaks registered last week around 105.00. EURUSD regained the 1.0460 intermediate resistance and was last seen approaching the 1.0500 figure, followed by the descending 20-DMA, currently at 1.0570. For the time being, it looks like the pair will lack the upside momentum to make a decisive break above 1.0500 on a daily closing basis.
GBPUSD accelerated the ascent on Tuesday due to a local technical correction in the USD. The pair advanced to the descending 20-DMA that capped the upside pressure just below the 1.2500 figure. In the process, the daily RSI exited the oversold territory to turn neutral and was last seen pointing higher around the 43 figure, suggesting there is room for further rebound in the near term. On the four-hour charts, however, GBPUSD struggles to extend the ascent as the GBP bulls are now facing a barrier represented by the mentioned 20-DMA. In a wider picture, the pair stays on the defensive while below the 100-week SMA, today at 1.3430. As the bearish trend persists, the recent long-term lows below 1.2200 stay in the market focus for the time being. Should the selling pressure surrounding the dollar intensify in the near term, the pair may challenge the 20-DMA, but the path of least resistance remains to the downside so far.
USDJPY keeps flirting with the 20-DMA, struggling to regain the upside momentum as the dollar weakens across the board. Still, the pair turned slightly positive in recent trading as demand reemerged on a dip below 129.00. The prices derived support from the 128.80 zone earlier in the day to briefly exceed the mentioned moving average. Even as the buck retreated from multi-year peaks seen above 131.00, the overall outlook for the pair remains constructive as the pair refrains from a deeper downside correction after a bounce from local lows registered in the 127.50 region last week. On the four-hour timeframes, the technical picture looks neutral, as the prices are stuck between the key moving averages while the RSI is directionless around 50. In the immediate term, a decisive break above 129.60 would pave the way towards the 130.00 mark that represents the immediate significant barrier for USD bulls at this stage.
The Kiwi has been in recovery mode since last Friday when the pair notched fresh mid-2020 lows around 0.6200. On Tuesday, NZDUSD extended recovery towards 0.6370, adding nearly 1% on the day. Now, the pair needs to challenge the 0.6400 barrier in order to target the descending 20-DMA, currently at 0.6455. A decisive break above this moving average would improve the near-term technical picture, However, the New Zealand dollar is unlikely to overcome this barrier at this stage, especially as the greenback refrains from a more aggressive downside correction. In a wider picture, the pair is just licking its wounds following seven days of losses in a row, with downtrend remains intact while as long as the prices stay below at least the 0.6700 mark where the 20- and 200-week SMAs converge.