Cyclical lows around 1.0350 stay in the market focus at this stage, especially as the euro was strongly rejected from 1.0500
EURUSD
The US dollar is back on the offensive after yesterday’s retreat in the aftermath of the Fed decision as traders opted to take some profit at fresh twenty-year highs. As such, the USD index briefly rallied to 105.80 before finishing below the 105.00 figure. On Thursday, the dollar is back above this handle, with major counterparts coming under renewed selling pressure. EURUSD briefly peaked at 1.0500 on Wednesday before reversing some of the intraday gains eventually. Today, the pair struggles, trading slightly above the 1.0400 figure during the European hours, with downside risks persisting despite the recent bounce. As such, important cyclical lows around 1.0350 stay in the market focus at this stage, especially as the pair was strongly rejected from 1.0500 despite the falling dollar. On the four-hour charts, the shared currency remains capped by the descending 20-SMA while the RSI struggles for direction in neutral territory, painting a mixed short-term technical picture.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD rallied yesterday as the buck retreated across the market following the Fed’s decision. The pair advanced to the 1.2200 mark that capped the buying pressure and triggered renewed pressure on Thursday. The cable is now clinging to the 1.2100 figure while looking vulnerable to deeper losses, especially as the USD index is back in positive territory after a short-lived correction from fresh two-decade peaks. The nearest support arrives at 1.2060, followed by 1.2000 and the March 2020 low seen earlier this week around 1.1930. In the immediate term, downside risks look limited as long as the prices stay above 1.2000. On the weekly timeframes, GBPUSD looks set to finish the third bearish week in a row, with the RSI pointing lower in oversold territory, suggesting the pair could continue to struggle at least in the near term.
USDJPY
USDJPY refreshed twenty-year peaks around 135.60 on Wednesday before reversing south abruptly. The pair stays under selling pressure today, holding just above more than one-week lows seen in the 132.30 earlier in the day. Now, the dollar needs to regain the 133.00 figure that represents the immediate target for USD bulls while more significant barrier arrives around 133.80. On the hourly charts, the technical picture looks bearish, with the RSI pointing south in oversold territory while the pair itself is now holding well below the key moving averages, suggesting the dollar could see deeper losses before attracting renewed demand that may eventually push the prices back to the mentioned multi-year highs. Should USDJPY exceed the 135.60 zone, the 136.00 mark will come into the market focus next.
BTCUSD
On Wednesday, bitcoin briefly dipped to the $20,000 figure for the first time since late-2020 before bouncing into positive territory on a daily closing basis. The BTCUSD pair finished around $22,500, up nearly 2% on the day. However, the most popular digital currency failed to extend recovery and came back under selling pressure on Thursday, challenging the $21,500 zone during the European hours. Bitcoin has lost around 70% of its value since its all-time high in November 2021. Should sellers continue to dominate the market in the near term, bitcoin may challenge the $20,000 mark, a break below which would pave the way towards the $17,700 zone where December 2020 lows arrive. On the upside, the immediate target for buyers now arrives around $23,000, as decisive break above this level would pave the way towards more decisive recovery towards the $30,000 mark. However, the path of least resistance remains to the downside at this stage, with $20,000 staying in the market focus.
