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Home » Currencies stuck in ranges as New Year holiday looms

Currencies stuck in ranges as New Year holiday looms

by Joseph Deen
December 28, 2022 07:01
in Technical analysis
0
Dollar lacks upside momentum due to lower Treasury yields

USDJPY has been recovering gradually since a major plunge to late-July lows

EURUSD

The euro keeps inching north, albeit still holds off June highs registered around 1.0735 earlier this month. EURUSD has settled above the 1.0600 figure, staying above the 20-DMA since early-November. The pair looks set to finish the third bullish month in a row, extending its recovery from multi-year lows seen in Autumn. For the time being, the euro is expected to stay afloat in the dominant bullish trend. Furthermore, a potential risk-on rally could send the pair to fresh multi-month highs in the near term. As such, the 1.0800 mark stays in the market focus as long as the euro holds above the 200-DMA, currently at 1.0330. However, downside risks could materialize as well, considering investor nervousness amid rising recession. EURUSD was last seen changing hands around 1.0645, up less than 0.1% on the day. The USD index is holding above 104.00 after a modest bounce from June lows seen around 103.45 earlier this month.

GBPUSD

The cable finished slightly lower on Tuesday, staying close to late-November lows registered just below the 1.2000 psychological level. As the pair derailed this mark, the near-term technical picture has deteriorated somehow, with the cable trending lower for the third week in a row. In the process, GBPUSD exited the range limited by the 20- and the 200-DMAs to settle below both moving averages. The pair could refrain from a more aggressive decline at this stage, however, as the dollar lacks demand across the board. Now, the pound needs to regain the 20-DMA, today at 1.2056, in order to retain a bullish tone and resume the ascent. The daily RSI looks directionless in neutral territory, suggesting the cable could refrain from both bullish and bearish extension in the near term. As of writing, GBPUSD was changing hands around 1.2050, up 0.25% on the day.

USDJPY

USDJPY plunged dramatically last week to fall below the descending 20-DMA and the 200-DMA in the aftermath of the Bank of Japan meeting. The pair has been recovering gradually since then, targeting the descending 20-DMA. As such, the downside momentum has eased since the sell-off, with the pair holding just below the 134.00 mark on Wednesday. In the immediate term, the greenback needs to regain this level in order to extend the ascent from late-July lows seen last week. Otherwise, the pair is likely to suffer fresh losses, with the 130.00 support zone staying the market focus at this stage. After an early jump to 134.40, USDJPY slipped below 134.00 amid some profit-taking. In a wider picture, downside risks continue to persist while below the 20-week SMA, currently at 140.85.

BTCUSD

The price of bitcoin struggles to resume the ascent these days as the recent jump above the $17,000 failed to attract more decisive buying pressure due to a still heightened uncertainty in the crypto space. The BTCUSD pair has settled around $16,600 on Wednesday, trading slightly lower on the day. The latest rally helped push the coin from late-November lows registered around $16,300. Now, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization needs to climb above $16,500 in order to stay afloat and regain the $17,000 barrier eventually. A decisive break above this level on a daily/weekly closing basis would mark substantial improvement in the near-term technical picture for bitcoin. In a wider picture, the overall trend in the cryptocurrency market remains bearish, with BTC retreating further from all-time highs around $69,000 seen in November 2021. After a brief relief in October, the coin resumed the decline last month to notch one-year lows in the $15,500 zone.

Tags: BTCUSDEURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPY
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Joseph Deen

Joseph Deen

Joseph is a technical analysis expert. A graduate of NYU, Joseph has a master's degree in mathematics. On FWNews, Joseph provides exchange rates reviews and forecasts.

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