The buck stays away from cyclical tops and could retest the 106.00 figure if the pressure keeps building in the near term
The US dollar has settled in negative territory on Monday, struggling to extend its recovery from local lows seen around 105.55 last week. After the initial dip, the USD index climbed back above the 106.00 figure that turned into support. Today, the DXY is treading water around the 106.50 zone as buying interest has abated amid dovish signals from the Fed and lower Treasury yields. As such, the buck stays away from cyclical tops and could retest the 106.00 figure if the pressure keeps building in the near term. A wider technical picture, however, stays positive so far. Should the DXY see further bearish pressure, a decisive break below the 105.50 figure would open the way towards fresh local lows. Meanwhile, EURUSD is in recovery mode on Monday, lacking the momentum to regain the descending 20-DMA, today at 1.0570. The pair is changing hands around 1.0525 as of writing, up 0.15% on the day after a brief jump to 1.0500 earlier in the session.
The pound came under severe selling pressure late last week to find support around 1.2120 before bouncing marginally. Today, the cable has settled in positive territory, holding below 1.2200 in early European deals. Earlier in the month, the pair found support around fresh March lows around 1.2035 before staging a six-day rally. GBPUSD has settled above 1.2150 on Monday to turn positive after a failed attempt regain the descending 20-DMA. As such, the cable hesitates now after recent volatility spikes, seeing a bounce due to a weaker dollar. During the European deals, the pair looks slightly upbeat, trying to attract more robust demand at this stage. The daily RSI points slightly higher in neutral territory, suggesting the pair could see more bullish attempts in the immediate term. In recent trading, GBPUSD was changing hands around 1.2170, up 0.25% on the day. On the downside, the immediate significant support is now represented by the 1.2135 zone. On the upside, a decisive recovery above 1.2200 would pave the way to a more sustained bounce.
The USDJPY pair looks relatively steady these days, oscillating above the ascending 20-DMA. The dollar holds slightly positive during the European trading hours on Monday, trading below fresh October 2022 highs seen around 150.15 earlier in the month. The pair has settled above the 149.00 figure, staying elevated despite overbought conditions. As the pair still stays mostly above the ascending 20-DMA, downside risks remain limited in the near term. The dollar was last seen changing hands around 149.57, up 0.02% on the day. Now, the greenback needs to confirm a break above the 149.50 region in order to extend the ascent. The daily RSI stays directionless in neutral territory, suggesting the dollar could see some consolidation in the immediate term before deciding on further direction. On the hourly timeframes, the technical picture looks mixed, with prices staying above the key SMAs while the RSI turned negative in neutral territory.
The price of gold bounced aggressively at the end of the week to overcome the key daily SMAs. Earlier in the month, the metal briefly dipped to fresh March lows around $1,810 before finishing in positive territory due to a decline in the US dollar. Now, the technical picture improves as the bullion is flirting with the 200-DMA, today at $1,929. The XAUUSD pair extended gains to the $1,930 zone ahead of the weekend. Today, prices retreat as traders fix profit after a rally. Should gold break above the $1,930 region, the $1,947 high will come back into the market focus. If the pressure intensifies any time soon, the bullion could get back below the $1,900 psychological level. Gold was last seen changing hands around $1,911, down 0.91% on the day. On the weekly timeframes, the bullion remains vulnerable even as the metal bounced from the key SMAs. On the upside, the immediate target is now represented by the $1,922 region, followed by the $1,930 zone. On the four-hour charts, the XAUUSD pair is now above the 20- and 100-SMAs while the RSI has exited overbought territory, suggesting the pair could see a deeper local pullback in the immediate term.