As long as the euro stays below 1.2200, downside risks continue to persist
EURUSD peaked at 1.2217 on Wednesday but failed to preserve gains and retreated to finish just marginally higher. Today, the selling pressure has intensified as the USD index proceeded to a recovery from recent lows. The pair slipped to the 1.2153 area as a result before trimming some of its intraday losses in recent trading. On the negative side, the common currency is now back below the 20-DMA that arrives at 1.2190 today. As long as the pair stays below 1.2200, downside risks continue to persist. Still, the euro remains within a broader uptrend in a wider picture and could resume the ascent after the current consolidation with a bearish bias.
The cable has been correcting lower for the third session in a row on Thursday. Yesterday, the pair failed to hold above the 20-DMA, extending the decline to nearly one-month lows around 0.4070 before trimming some losses in recent trading. The pound now needs to regain the 1.4100 figure in order to climb back to recent long-term highs seen at 1.4250 seen at the start of this month. For the time being, it looks like the pair could stay on the defensive and even see deeper losses before a reversal takes place. On the downside, a break below the 0.4070 mentioned zone would pave the way to the 0.4045 next support area, followed by the 0.4000 figure.
USDJPY refreshed this week’s highs at 109.67 earlier today before reversing south. As a result, the pair turned lower for the day and was last seen challenging the 109.50 support zone. A bounce from this area would bring the 109.70 intermediate barrier back into market focus. Anyway, downside risks look limited for the time being. Furthermore, there is a relatively strong support level represented by a slightly ascending 20-DMA that arrives at 109.32 today. The next hurdle for dollar bears is expected at 109.00. On the four-hour charts, USDJPY is clinging to the 20-SMA that could trigger a bounce into positive territory later in the day.
The Kiwi dipped to fresh weekly lows around 0.7164 earlier in the day before bouncing into positive territory following two days of losses. The pair is now back above the 100-DMA but is yet to confirm a modest recovery on a daily closing basis as downside risks continue to persist at this stage. The immediate barrier arrives at 0.7190, followed by the 20-DMA that arrives at 0.7215 today. However, it looks like the pair will hardly be able to make a decisive break above this hurdle in the immediate term. On the downside, NZDUSD could get back below the mentioned 100-DMA if the greenback rallies across the board following the upcoming US inflation report.
The Aussie managed to stage a local bounce from the 100-DMA to turn positive on Thursday following two days of losses. The pair derived support from the 0.7720 area while facing resistance represented by the 20-DMA at 0.7743. As such, the prices remain stuck in a relatively tight trading range these days, struggling for direction as the dollar index looks mixed. At the start of the week, the Australian dollar advanced to 0.7765 and has been muted since then. A decisive recovery above this area is needed for a more sustained ascent towards the 0.7800 handle last seen on May 18. However, it looks like downside risks would persist in the immediate term as the USD index regains some ground in the second half of the week.
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