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Dollar lacks upside momentum due to lower Treasury yields

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Home » Dollar off highs but the downside seems limited

Dollar off highs but the downside seems limited

by Joseph Deen
January 5, 2022 03:45
in Technical analysis
0
Dollar lacks upside momentum due to lower Treasury yields

The GBPUSD pair has been flirting with the 100-DMA this week, clinging to nearly two-month highs

EURUSD

The USD index peaked just below the 96.50 area before retreating to the 96.25 zone. Today, the index turned slightly negative but still holds above the 96.00 figure ahead of the ADP employment report and the FOMC meeting minutes due later in the day. EURUSD bounced marginally on Wednesday, treading water around the 1.1300 figure during the European hours. Should this level give up anytime soon, the common currency may challenge yesterday’s highs around 1.1320. However, the upside potential still looks limited at this point, with the 1.1270 support zone staying in the market focus. On the four-our charts, the pair is flirting with the 100-SMA, while the RSI looks directionless in the neutral territory, suggesting the bullish potential is limited in the immediate term as well.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair has been flirting with the 100-DMA this week, clinging to nearly two-month highs around 1.3560. Should the dollar retreat further in the near term, the cable may exceed this barrier. However, it looks like the pair would lack the impetus to confirm the potential breakout on a daily closing basis. On the downside, the immediate support now arrives at 1.3520, followed by the 1.3500 figure. The pound was last seen changing hands around 1.3540, up just 0.06% on the day. In a wider picture, the cable is facing resistance represented by a slightly descending 20-week SMA while the RSI lacks a bullish bias, which implies the prices will likely fail to overcome this hurdle in the near term. Furthermore, this moving average could attract profit-taking that would send the pair back below the 1.3500 figure.

USDJPY

USDJPY exceeded the 116.00 figure and rallied to fresh five-year highs around 116.35 on Tuesday. Today, traders proceeded to profit-taking, sending the pair back below the 116.00 figure. The dollar slipped to the 115.70 area that has been capping the downside pressure so far. Should this zone give up anytime soon, the prices may extend the technical correction to the 115.50 area, followed by 115.30. However, it looks like the downside potential would be limited in the near term, with the overall bullish trend surrounding the greenback staying intact. On the hourly timeframes, USDJPY holds above the 20-SMA while the RSI is pointing slightly higher in the neutral territory, suggesting the prices could resume the ascent following the current retreat.

BTCUSD

The bitcoin price dipped to mid-December lows around $45,500 on Tuesday to finish the day slightly higher. Today, BTCUSD retains a modest bullish bias but the recovery momentum looks too shallow to bet on more robust gains in the near term. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was last seen changing hands around $46,800, up 2.5% on the day. The coin needs to regain the $47,500 intermediate resistance in the near term in order to retarget the $50,000 psychological level. Of note, the 20- and 200-DMAs converge around the $48,000 figure, representing another barrier for the BTC bulls at this point. As long as the prices stay below these moving averages, bearish risks continue to persist, with the upside potential looking limited. In a wider picture, the technical outlook on the weekly charts stays downbeat as well.  

Tags: BITCOINBTCUSDDollarEURUSDFOMCGBPUSDUSDUSDJPY
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Joseph Deen

Joseph Deen

Joseph is a technical analysis expert. A graduate of NYU, Joseph has a master's degree in mathematics. On FWNews, Joseph provides exchange rates reviews and forecasts.

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